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This article seeks to critique and extend recent work in the policy sciences, by Maor in particular, on disproportionate policy making-including policy overreaction and underreaction. While the disproportionate policy making thesi...
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This article seeks to critique and extend recent work in the policy sciences, by Maor in particular, on disproportionate policy making-including policy overreaction and underreaction. While the disproportionate policy making thesis does help address assumptions that something is amiss in the policy process by capturing an imbalance between policy problems and the interventions to address them, we argue that it does not pay sufficient attention to politics. We present a heuristic which includes political perception of both programme and political threats. Our core argument is that much of what is considered disproportionate policy making, can in fact also be considered proportionate politics. Our analysis paves the way for a more holistic and political understanding of policy dynamics.
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether fiscal policy may be a complementary instrument to monetary policy in the macrostabilization process. Design/methodology/approach - The authors developed a dynamic syst...
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether fiscal policy may be a complementary instrument to monetary policy in the macrostabilization process. Design/methodology/approach - The authors developed a dynamic system with two linear differential equations in order to verify if an active fiscal policy can be compatible with macroeconomic equilibrium in three monetary policy regimes (conservative, alternative and hybrid). The authors also use numerical simulations because it is impossible to extract analytically full conclusions from the theoretical model. Findings - The results suggest that fiscal policy can be a useful tool for macroeconomic stabilization; the counter-cyclical role of fiscal policy is compatible with dynamic equilibrium only if the monetary authority is not lenient towards inflation; and under an active fiscal policy a hybrid monetary regime is preferable to a conservative one. Originality/value - This paper offers a theoretical contribution to explicate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy.
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In this paper, we study the dynamic rationing problem for multiple demand classes with Poisson demands. We first consider a multi-period problem with zero lead time and show that the optimal rationing and ordering policies are, re...
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In this paper, we study the dynamic rationing problem for multiple demand classes with Poisson demands. We first consider a multi-period problem with zero lead time and show that the optimal rationing and ordering policies are, respectively, the dynamic rationing policy and the base stock policy. We then extend this model to a non-zero lead time and show that there is no simple optimal structure for this extended problem. A myopic policy and a lower bound are proposed. The numerical results show that the dynamic rationing policy outperforms the static rationing policy and its performance is very close to the optimal policy under a wide range of operating conditions.
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摘要 :
In this paper, we study the dynamic rationing problem for multiple demand classes with Poisson demands. We first consider a multi-period problem with zero lead time and show that the optimal rationing and ordering policies are, re...
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In this paper, we study the dynamic rationing problem for multiple demand classes with Poisson demands. We first consider a multi-period problem with zero lead time and show that the optimal rationing and ordering policies are, respectively, the dynamic rationing policy and the base stock policy. We then extend this model to a non-zero lead time and show that there is no simple optimal structure for this extended problem. A myopic policy and a lower bound are proposed. The numerical results show that the dynamic rationing policy outperforms the static rationing policy and its performance is very close to the optimal policy under a wide range of operating conditions.
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Tobacco use is a global problem and the health consequences are far reaching. Systemic approaches are needed to help investigate policies to reduce the adverse health effects of tobacco use. This paper provides an overview of the ...
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Tobacco use is a global problem and the health consequences are far reaching. Systemic approaches are needed to help investigate policies to reduce the adverse health effects of tobacco use. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics model that has been developed to assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of six sectors: population; smoking prevalences; tobacco consumption; second hand smoke; relative risks and tobacco attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20-30 years into the future. The simulation package used is 'iThink', and a user interface is presented for policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including: business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm minimization strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic cigarettes and combinations of the above policies. The main output variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence, tobacco consumption and tobacco attributable mortality. Finally some areas for future model enhancement are identified.
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In this article, I study how relative wages and border enforcement affect immigration from Mexico to the U.S. To do this, I develop a discrete choice dynamic programming model where people choose from a set of locations in both th...
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In this article, I study how relative wages and border enforcement affect immigration from Mexico to the U.S. To do this, I develop a discrete choice dynamic programming model where people choose from a set of locations in both the U.S. and Mexico, while accounting for the location of one's spouse when making decisions. I estimate the model using data on individual immigration decisions from the Mexican Migration Project. Counterfactuals show that a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migration rates and durations, overall decreasing the number of years spent in the U.S. by about 5%. A 50% increase in enforcement reduces migration rates and increases durations of stay in the U.S., and the overall effect is a 7% decrease in the number of years spent in the U.S.
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This paper proposes a model of West Nile Virus (WNV) including threshold control policies concerning the culling of mosquitoes and birds under different conditions. Two thresholds are introduced to estimate whether and which contr...
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This paper proposes a model of West Nile Virus (WNV) including threshold control policies concerning the culling of mosquitoes and birds under different conditions. Two thresholds are introduced to estimate whether and which control strategy should be implemented. For each mosquito threshold level C-Im the dynamical behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system is investigated as the bird threshold level C-Ib, varies, focusing on the existence of sliding domains, the existence of pseudo-equilibria, real or virtual of the endemic equilibria, global stability of these steady states, and the most interesting case of the occurrence of a novel globally asymptotically stable pseudo-attractor. The model solutions ultimately converge to a real equilibrium or a pseudo-equilibrium (if it exists), or a pseudo-attractor if no equilibrium is real and no pseudo-equilibrium exists. Here within, we show that the free system has a single stable endemic equilibrium under biologically reasonable assumptions, and show that when the control system has: (1) a bird-culling threshold that is above the bird equilibrium, culling has no advantage; (2) a bird culling threshold that is below the bird equilibrium, but a mosquito-culling threshold that lies above the mosquito equilibrium, the infected bird population can be reduced but the infected mosquito population will remain the same; (3) a bird-culling threshold and a mosquito-culling threshold that both lie below their respective equilibrium values of the free system, then both the infected bird and mosquito populations can be reduced to lower levels. The results suggest that preset levels of the number of infected birds and infected mosquitoes can be maintained simultaneously when threshold values are chosen properly, which provides a possible control strategy when an emergent infectious disease cannot be eradicated immediately. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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State-level marijuana liberalization policies have been evolving for the past five decades, and yet the overall scientific evidence of the impact of these policies is widely believed to be inconclusive. In this review we summarize...
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State-level marijuana liberalization policies have been evolving for the past five decades, and yet the overall scientific evidence of the impact of these policies is widely believed to be inconclusive. In this review we summarize some of the key limitations of the studies evaluating the effects of decriminalization and medical marijuana laws on marijuana use, highlighting their inconsistencies in terms of the heterogeneity of policies, the timing of the evaluations, and the measures of use being considered. We suggest that the heterogeneity in the responsiveness of different populations to particular laws is important for interpreting the mixed findings from the literature, and we highlight the limitations of the existing literature in providing clear insights into the probable effects of marijuana legalization.
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More often than not, system dynamics model-based public policy analysis is limited to testing parameter changes instead of designing and testing new stock-and-flow policy structures. That is problematic because improvements in beh...
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More often than not, system dynamics model-based public policy analysis is limited to testing parameter changes instead of designing and testing new stock-and-flow policy structures. That is problematic because improvements in behaviour require improvements in structure. This paper considers how the public policy implementation literature could improve the operational thinking skills required for designing policy structure for public sector models. A familiar model of a public health problem is used to illustrate the recommended approach. And an instructional training strategy is offered for teaching and learning to think operationally during the policy-design stage of modelling.
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